Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

ODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THERE IS A SMALL CDO ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
GIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS IS
CONSERVATIVELY USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER ODILE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOREOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON
BE PASSING OVER THE WAKE OF NORBERT...WHICH CONTAINS COOLER WATER
CAUSED BY UPWELLING AND MIXING.  THEREFORE...NOTWITHSTANDING THE
CURRENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE.  WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

LATEST FIXES LEAD TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/11.  MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THIS KEEPS THE CENTER FAIRLY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE STORM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE
RAINFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO IS DIMINISHING. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 12.7N  94.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 13.0N  95.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.8N  97.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.7N  99.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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