Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS HAS FINALLY
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO
BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BANDING FEATURES
ARE BECOMING EVIDENT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN LINE
WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE...OF
COURSE...QUITE WARM.  HOWEVER THE LACK OF INNER CORE ORGANIZATION
AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A
LOT OF STRENGTHENING SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE LATTER MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS AFTER
DAY 3.

ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE SYSTEM WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD...
IT HAS SINCE LOOPED BACK TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  CURRENT
MOTION IS AROUND 280/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO TROUGHS OR OTHER OBVIOUS STEERING
MECHANISMS TO BRING THE CENTER ASHORE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK
PARALLELING...BUT NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS
IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 12.1N  90.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.5N  92.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.1N  93.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N  95.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 14.3N  96.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N  98.8W    60 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 101.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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