ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008 ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE DAY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ABOUT A MID-LEVEL CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WAS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THIS DISPLACEMENT MAY BE DECREASING. A 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 45 KT. WIND SHEAR IS MODEST...AND THE IMPROVED BANDING SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER...ALTHOUGH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OVER TIME...THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...SO SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE. IN 36-48 HOURS...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING WITH PERHAPS A BEND TO THE RIGHT. AS BEFORE...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY SLOW WHILE THE UKMET IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH. AND AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 17.6N 120.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.6N 122.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.7N 123.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC