Tropical Storm MARIE

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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008
 
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE
DAY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ABOUT A MID-LEVEL CENTER. 
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER WAS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THIS DISPLACEMENT MAY
BE DECREASING.  A 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ABOUT 45 KT.  WIND SHEAR IS MODEST...AND THE IMPROVED
BANDING SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER...ALTHOUGH THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  OVER TIME...THE MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6.  A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA...SO SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE. 
IN 36-48 HOURS...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING WITH
PERHAPS A BEND TO THE RIGHT.  AS BEFORE...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
SLOW WHILE THE UKMET IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH.  AND AS
BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 17.6N 120.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.6N 122.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.7N 123.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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