Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression LOWELL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOWELL TONIGHT.  THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A LARGE FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONE...OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER
SKELETAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN
ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD HELP FINISH OFF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF LOWELL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
LOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
045/7...THOUGH THIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...ASSUMING IT REMAINS A COHERENT SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TOTALLY DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER...IT IS POSSIBLE LOWELL COULD TAKE A RIGHT TURN AND BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL.
 
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES.  THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 23.1N 111.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.2N 110.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N 109.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:42 UTC