Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PULSE WEST OF THE CENTER...WHICH
REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1300 UTC SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST
30 KT.  SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...BUT
THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER... A
COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS...MORE STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE OF THE MORE BULLISH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
315/10...THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT
ESTIMATE.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO
STEERING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH
IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE
NOGAPS/GFS.  I'M INCLINED TO TO LEAN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION AND THE LIMITED
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 19.5N 108.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 110.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 112.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC