Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008
 
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
LANDFALL.
 
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  NEITHER THE
GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 10.2N  86.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 10.8N  86.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  86.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 13.7N  87.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:29 UTC