Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OMAR


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING OF OMAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN
ELLIPTICAL AND PARTIALLY OPEN EYE WAS OBSERVED BUT THE INNER CORE
IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN AND
MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 65
KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT OMAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...AS WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS OMAR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.   

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 050/6.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE ALONG WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
CREATING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS A LITTLE AROUND DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT AHEAD OF OMAR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER. 
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION COULD REQUIRE
CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT
ISLAND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  67.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N  66.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.8N  62.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.8N  60.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  51.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 43.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:25 UTC