Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KYLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
 
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 38.4N  69.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  68.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 45.2N  66.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  64.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  64.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 50.8N  63.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:23 UTC