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Tropical Storm KYLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.

KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
NORTHWARD JOG.  THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS
345/13.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES.  THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  WHILE THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE
CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT
48 HR.  THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.  KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 32.1N  69.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.7N  69.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 38.8N  68.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 43.0N  67.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 46.7N  66.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 51.0N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:23 UTC