Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
 
IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT.  GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...INNER-
CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS
IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
 
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS
MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE
LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...
COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST
TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A
BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 23.2N  57.0W   120 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  58.9W   115 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  61.3W   110 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.6N  63.8W   105 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  66.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 22.5N  71.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N  74.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  77.5W   105 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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