Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BERTHA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT.  THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE
LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT
INITIAL INTENSITY.

BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.
BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR 
REMAINS LOW.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE
THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.

BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...290/14.  THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE
THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA
ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.9N  29.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.7N  32.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  35.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.2N  39.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.9N  42.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  49.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  54.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  59.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:05 UTC