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Tropical Depression THREE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
900 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007
 
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN MONITORED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A 1302 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE
INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E.   

ALLOWING FOR SOME REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS.  AT THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS A
RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  

THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1600Z 15.7N 110.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC