Tropical Storm BARBARA

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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
 
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT
BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...IS
105/4...AS BARBARA APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 12.9N  95.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.9N  95.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.3N  94.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N  94.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  94.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N  95.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  95.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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