Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A BETTER-DEFINED
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.0...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E.

AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY.  LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THIS CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN UNUSUAL NET SOUTHWARD
STEERING FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SLOW DRIFT AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  WHILE ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND SALINA CRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION UNTIL THE EXPECTED MOTION AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COASTLINE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE DEPRESSION IS
OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 30C...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
LIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY HIGHLY
DIVERGENT... AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED TROUGHING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE THE
CYCLONE TO 80 KT OR HIGHER...AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX IS UNUSUALLY HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE.  POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTORS WOULD
BE SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE AND CAUSE LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN INDICATED
HERE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 14.2N  97.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N  97.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N  97.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 13.0N  97.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 13.0N  97.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 13.4N  97.7W    75 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N  98.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N  99.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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