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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK-T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER. 

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 30.1N  49.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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