Tropical Depression FIFTEEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK-T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 30.1N 49.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.5N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER AVILA
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