Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
INCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGED
UPWARD TO 40 KT.  THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THEN
IS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER
30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR.  MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THAN
SHOWN BELOW.
 
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
295/8...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CENTER
BEING OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF MELISSA SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A
SMALL ACCELERATION.  IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A BIT...IT MAY
BRIEFLY MOVE A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...BUT THAT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT
OVER COOLER WATERS MORE QUICKLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE UMKET/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 15.8N  30.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  31.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.4N  33.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  35.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N  38.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N  42.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:51 UTC