Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007
 
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
CENTER OF MELISSA HAS ALSO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE
TO WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS COMMON AT THE
END OF SEPTEMBER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN
STILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STATUS GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND THE TIGHT SURFACE CENTER. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MELISSA COULD KEEP
ITS STORM STATUS. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL
LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN KNOW MELISSA
IS THERE...AND IF THEY KNOW...THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THAT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 15.2N  28.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.6N  29.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  31.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N  33.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  35.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  39.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1200Z 23.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:51 UTC