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Tropical Storm JERRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY
RESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
JERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD
COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE
EITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY.  IN RESPONSE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13.  JERRY SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 38.6N  45.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 41.4N  43.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:49 UTC