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Subtropical Storm JERRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
 
JERRY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES.  LOW CLOUD LINES ARE WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND
THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOT TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN SUBTROPICAL T2.5 AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SO THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
DESIGNATED AS A 35-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JERRY
WILL PROBABLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL SOON BE CURTAILED BY COOLING SSTS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
FORECAST TO ABSORB JERRY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

JERRY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/5.  AS THE STEERING
FLOW INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
DIGGING OFF OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ABSORBS IT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 36.8N  46.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 38.5N  45.1W    40 KT...TROPICAL
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 41.7N  42.3W    45 KT...TROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 47.0N  38.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:49 UTC