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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE
REMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RECENTLY
MOVED JUST NORTH OF BUOY 44014 WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25
KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT
DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY TAKES
GABRIELLE ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  SINCE ANY
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER WARMER
WATERS...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF
AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR 2
DAYS AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STRONGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORM
SOON...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/10.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 37.0N  74.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 37.8N  72.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 38.9N  69.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 40.4N  65.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 42.3N  60.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:46 UTC