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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY.  SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX.  HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO.  CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER.  INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...
CONTINUES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO
THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 14.3N  77.8W   140 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  80.4W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.1N  83.2W   145 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N  85.9W    90 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N  88.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC