Hurricane FELIX

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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. 
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16.  THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS.  IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 13.2N  70.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  72.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.4N  76.3W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N  79.5W   120 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.8N  82.7W   125 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  94.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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