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Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.  IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.  PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES.  AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI.  EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:42 UTC