Hurricane DEAN

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
 
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR IN THE ST. LUCIA
CHANNEL BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.  FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WHILE BARBADOS HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN