Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES.  AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.0N  75.1W   125 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N  77.7W   125 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N  81.2W   130 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N  84.5W   140 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  88.2W   120 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  95.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC