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Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
 
DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL.  IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.
 
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 13.7N  54.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.1N  57.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.6N  61.4W    95 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.1N  64.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N  68.4W   105 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W   120 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    80 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN



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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC