Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DEAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED.  WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.

DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 12.2N  44.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.4N  46.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.8N  50.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.2N  53.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.8N  57.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  63.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  68.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N  74.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC