Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DEAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
 
DEAN'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
HAS WANED AND REMAINS ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. BOTH TAFB
AND SAB GAVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHILE AN AMSU PASS
AT 1623 UTC SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE INTENSITY OF DEAN IS KEPT AT 35 KT.

INITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE LAST ADVISORY.  DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND
FASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER AND
LESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK
SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.

DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHEAR
SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  BY DAY
5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 11.6N  41.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.7N  43.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N  46.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 12.3N  50.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 12.6N  53.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N  59.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  64.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  69.5W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC