Tropical Storm CHANTAL

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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
CENTER ON SATELLITE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED
BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED.  GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS.  

THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 40.2N  62.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  59.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  52.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 51.2N  44.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 56.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 60.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 62.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1200Z 64.5N  12.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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