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Tropical Weather Summary



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011548
TWSEP 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PST FRI DEC 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING NOVEMBER WAS BUSY FOR SO LATE IN
THE YEAR AND IT SET SEVERAL RECORDS. THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES
FORMED... WITH TWO OF THESE SYSTEMS BECOMING TROPICAL STORMS AND
ONE OF THE STORMS INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE. TWO TROPICAL
STORMS FORMING IN NOVEMBER HAS ONLY BEEN NOTED ONCE BEFORE (1966)
IN THE OFFICIAL RECORD WHICH STARTS IN 1949. USING THE ACCUMULATED
CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX... WHICH MEASURES THE STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES... NOVEMBER 2006 WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. HURRICANE SERGIO WAS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE OBSERVED IN NOVEMBER AND ALSO LASTED AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR A RECORD 5.5 DAYS DURING NOVEMBER.

OVERALL...THE 2006 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAD 18
TROPICAL STORMS...10 OF WHICH WERE HURRICANES...WITH 5 OF THE
HURRICANES BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES (CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE).  THIS ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
1971-2005 YEAR MEAN OF 15 TROPICAL STORMS...9 HURRICANES AND 4
MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN TERMS OF ACE...2006 HAD 107% OF THE PREVIOUS
35 YEAR MEAN.  THREE TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS ALSO FORMED DURING THE
SEASON.  ONE MAJOR HURRICANE (LANE)...ONE HURRICANE (JOHN) AND ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (PAUL) MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO DURING 2006.  

ALETTA FORMED AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS INTERACTION EVENTUALLY PRODUCED A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ON 25 MAY.
THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTERED
ABOUT 165 N MI SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO EARLY ON 27 MAY. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVED SLOWLY WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER THAT SAME DAY. ALETTA DRIFTED ERRATICALLY...EXECUTING A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO ON 28
MAY. THE CYCLONE BEGAN DRIFTING WESTWARD ON 29 MAY WHILE WEAKENING
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALETTA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AND
DISSIPATED ABOUT 170 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ON
30 MAY. ALETTA PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH A 24-HOUR TOTAL 3.6 INCHES IN THE STATE OF
OAXACA. THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR DAMAGES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 125 N
MI SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ON 3 JUNE. EVEN THOUGH THE
CYCLONE NEVER REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE PROXIMITY TO
LAND AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE
DEPRESSION SLOWLY MEANDERED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED ON 5 JUNE AS IT
INTERACTED WITH LAND.

BUD DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 27 JUNE AND REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 7 JULY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED ALONG THE WAVE ON 9 JULY APPROXIMATELY
550 N MI SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND EARLY ON 11 JULY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED
APPROXIMATELY 700 N MI SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
INITIALLY...THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERED NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DECREASED LATER ON 11 JULY
AND THE CYCLONE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER WARM WATERS...REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE THAT EVENING. THE INTENSIFICATION CONTINUED
ON 12 JULY AND BUD REACHED ITS ESTIMATED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 110
KT THE NEXT DAY WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 650 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.  THEREAFTER...BUD BEGAN ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR WHICH INITIATED WEAKENING. THIS TREND
CONTINUED AND BUD DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY ON 14
JULY. MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY AND THE
CYCLONE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA ON 15 JULY. 
THE LOW DISSIPATED ON 17 JULY ABOUT 650 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF
HAWAII.

CARLOTTA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EAST PACIFIC
BASIN ON 9 JULY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FORMED EARLY ON 12 JULY ABOUT 250 N MI SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO.
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY REACHED TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY...BECOMING A HURRICANE
THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 375 N MI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. ON 14 JULY...
CARLOTTA WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS ITS CIRCULATION BEGAN
TO SPREAD OVER COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...
HOWEVER THE CYCLONE REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH THE FOLLOWING DAY.
BY LATE ON 15 JULY...CARLOTTA BEGAN A SECOND AND FINAL WEAKENING
TREND OVER COOLER WATERS...AND BY 16 JULY CARLOTTA HAD WEAKENED TO
A DEPRESSION ABOUT 640 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 JULY.

DANIEL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA ON 2 JULY. THE WAVE REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON
12 JULY AND SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION STARTING ON 15 JULY. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED FROM THE SYSTEM ON 16 JULY ABOUT 455 N
MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. THE CYCLONE MOVED WESTWARD IN
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 17 JULY AND
A HURRICANE ON 18 JULY. DANIEL TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 20 JULY
AS IT BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON. IT
REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KT...CATEGORY 4 ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...ON 22 JULY ABOUT 1170 N MI
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. DANIEL TURNED WESTWARD ON 22
JULY...THEN RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT DAY. THIS
MOTION BROUGHT DANIEL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
RESULTED IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE
HURRICANE CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON 24 JULY WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT. OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...DANIEL
WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW ON 27 JULY...WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING THE
NEXT DAY.

EMILIA FORMED ON 21 JULY ABOUT 350 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO.
THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT
DAY ABOUT 350 N MI SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. EMILIA WOBBLED BACK AND
FORTH ABOUT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND STEADILY STRENGTHENED TO 55 KT ON 23 JULY. AFTER REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY...EMILIA ENCOUNTERED UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT DAY... WHICH CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 45
KT THE NEXT DAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE EMILIA REACHED COLDER WATER AND
BEGAN ITS FINAL WEAKENING TREND...THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASED AND
EMILIA RE-INTENSIFIED TO 55 KT ON 26 JULY. EMILIA BRUSHED PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CAUSING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS. AFTER REACHING
COLDER WATER LATE ON 26 JULY...EMILIA BEGAN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
IT BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 27 JULY. THE SYSTEM TURNED
WESTWARD AND DEGENERATED INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA
THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 280 N MI WEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUED SLOWLY WESTWARD
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FABIO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 15 JULY AND CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 23 JULY.
CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WAVE ON 28 JULY AT WHICH
TIME A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED APPROXIMATELY 500 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SLOWLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...AND BY 31 JULY THE SYSTEM ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ABOUT 975 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE BECAME THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON 6 HOURS LATER AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT ON 1
AUGUST. AS FABIO MOVED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE WAS AFFECTED BY
INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THESE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ULTIMATELY RESULTED IN THE CYCLONE WEAKENING
BACK TO A DEPRESSION ON 3 AUGUST ABOUT 1400 N MI EAST OF HILO
HAWAII. FABIO DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW ON 4 AUGUST AND
CONTINUED WESTWARD...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY 6 AUGUST.

GILMA DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA ON 17 JULY. IT ENTERED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN ON 25 JULY WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ON 29 JULY. BY 1
AUGUST...THE SYSTEM HAD ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ABOUT 360 N MI SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. DESPITE MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
1 AUGUST. GILMA WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SHEAR PREVENTED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY 2 AUGUST THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND GILMA WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GILMA DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ON 4 AUGUST
ABOUT 375 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. THE LOW DISSIPATED ON
5 AUGUST ABOUT 325 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

HECTOR FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA ON 31 JULY AND REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON 10
AUGUST. SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY INCREASED AS THE WAVE PASSED
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPED ABOUT 375 N MI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO ON 13 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ON
15 AUGUST ABOUT 650 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY
ACHIEVED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE
ON THE 17 AUGUST. WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 900 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... IT IS ESTIMATED THAT HECTOR
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...ON 18 AUGUST. HECTOR CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD REACHING COOLER WATERS ON 20 AUGUST AND WEAKENED
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. DESPITE PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS...THE
CYCLONE CONTINUED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS. HECTOR TURNED WESTWARD AND LOST MOST OF
ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON 22 AUGUST...THEN FINALLY WEAKENED INTO A
DEPRESSION EARLY THE NEXT DAY. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUED WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATED ABOUT 750 N MI EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON 24
AUGUST.

ILEANA FORMED ON 21 AUGUST ABOUT 300 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO FROM A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD EMERGED INTO
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEVERAL DAYS EARLIER. LATER THAT
DAY...THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ILEANA BECAME A HURRICANE ON 22 AUGUST...AND
STRENGTHENED TO AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT...CATEGORY 3
STATUS...ON 23 AUGUST. THE HURRICANE THEN TURNED NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND COMMENCED. ILEANA TURNED BACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 26 AUGUST. THE
SYSTEM WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ABOUT 550 N MI WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON 27 AUGUST AND DETERIORATED INTO A LARGE
REMNANT LOW LATER THAT DAY. THE LOW DRIFTED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR
A FEW DAYS BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

JOHN ORIGINATED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ON 25 AUGUST
AND ALMOST IMMEDIATELY SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER... THE
SYSTEM DID NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL 28 AUGUST
WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 235 N MI SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.  THE
CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE STORM
INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE ON 29 AUGUST AND STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY
INTO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 140
N MI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. JOHN REACHED CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH ON 30
AUGUST BUT WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 2 STATUS THE NEXT DAY AS IT
CONTINUED MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO. JOHN MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE EARLY ON 2 SEPTEMBER IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 40
N MI NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. JOHN THEN MOVED ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA...PASSING NEAR LA PAZ WHILE WEAKENING TO A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED UP THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER.
JOHN'S WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW STORM STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY EARLY ON 4 SEPTEMBER. LATER THAT DAY...JOHN DISSIPATED
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.

A 24-HOUR RAINFALL OF CLOSE TO 11 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT SAN JOSE DE
LOS PLANES...NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT IN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  OVER 250
HOMES WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED BY FLOODING IN MULEGE...AND HEAVY
RAINS CAUSED THE OVERFLOW OF THE IGUAGIL DAM IN COMUNDU ISOLATING
15 TOWNS DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.  MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
FROM JOHN OR ITS REMNANTS SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WIND GUSTS TO 57 KT WERE REPORTED AT LA
PAZ IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE REMAINED
OFFSHORE WHILE IT WAS PARALLELING MAINLAND MEXICO...JOHN'S
CIRCULATION AFFECTED THE COAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS. THERE WAS ALSO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES AND WAVE ACTION IN THE ACAPULCO AREA DUE TO JOHN. 
FIVE DEATHS WERE REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOHN.

KRISTY DEVELOPED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ON 30 AUGUST ABOUT 520 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER
THAT DAY. MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...IT BECAME A HURRICANE AND REACHED
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS ON 31 AUGUST. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED AND KRISTY BEGAN TO MEANDER WHILE IT
WEAKENED DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY HURRICANE JOHN.
KRISTY FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY BETWEEN STORM AND DEPRESSION
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT FINALLY BECAME A REMNANT LOW ON 8
SEPTEMBER AND DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON 9
SEPTEMBER.

LANE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 100 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. THE CYCLONE REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH EARLY THE NEXT DAY. LANE MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...ON 14 SEPTEMBER AS IT
SLOWLY STRENGTHENED. INTENSIFICATION WAS MORE RAPID ON 15 SEPTEMBER
AND LANE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AS IT TURNED TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ITS CENTER PASSING ABOUT 30 N MI WEST OF
CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO LATER THAT DAY. THE CENTER THEN PASSED JUST
WEST OF THE ISLAS MARIAS VERY EARLY ON 16 SEPTEMBER WHILE THE
HURRICANE WAS AT CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY...AND THE EASTERN EYEWALL
DIRECTLY IMPACTED THOSE ISLANDS.  LANE PROCEEDED NORTHWARD AND
STRENGTHENED SOME MORE...REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT A
FEW HOURS LATER. IT CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL LATER ON 16 SEPTEMBER ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...IN THE STATE OF SINALOA ALONG THE PENINSULA DE GUEVEDO OR
ABOUT 15 N MI SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO...AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
WITH WINDS OF 110 KT. THE RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE WEAKENED QUICKLY
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. LANE
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 17 SEPTEMBER... AND THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY. SOME OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. LANE PRODUCED COASTAL
FLOODING...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODS...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MANY AREAS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS WELL SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION SUCH AS ACAPULCO.
FOUR FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS BEING DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO HURRICANE LANE.

MIRIAM DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE
WEST OF HURRICANE LANE...BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 16
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 440 N MI SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THE
DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...BECAME A STORM LATER THAT
DAY...AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT EARLY ON 17
SEPTEMBER. NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND AN INFLOW OF RELATIVELY
COOL AIR LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND MIRIAM BEGAN TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION LATER ON 17 SEPTEMBER. MIRIAM WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION
AND THEN DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW THE NEXT DAY. THE REMNANTS OF
MIRIAM MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON 21 SEPTEMBER A SHORT DISTANCE
OFFSHORE.

NORMAN ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT REACHED THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC ON 1 OCTOBER. THE WAVE MOVED WESTWARD AND FIRST
SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 8 OCTOBER. THE SYSTEM SPAWNED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 9 OCTOBER ABOUT 665 N MI SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY AS IT
MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. NORMAN REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KT ON 10 OCTOBER...THEN WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION
LATER THAT DAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND DEGENERATED TO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 460 N MI SOUTHWEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN MOVED GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BECOMING INVOLVED WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
LED TO NORMAN REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 15 OCTOBER
ABOUT 175 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO. THE CYCLONE ABRUPTLY
DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. WHILE
THE REGENERATED NORMAN PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR
DAMAGES.

OLIVIA DEVELOPED FROM A WEST-AFRICAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON 29 SEPTEMBER. THE WAVE MOVED WESTWARD AND
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE ON 9 OCTOBER ABOUT 1180 N
MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THE
DEPRESSION TURNED NORTHWARD AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 10
OCTOBER. OLIVIA THEN MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHED AN ESTIMATED
PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT LATE THAT SAME DAY. HOWEVER... INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED RAPID WEAKENING...AND OLIVIA
BECAME A DEPRESSION ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 900 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS. OLIVIA TURNED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 13 OCTOBER. BY 15 OCTOBER
ITS REMNANTS WERE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE DISTURBANCE THAT INCLUDED
THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR
DAMAGES ASSOCIATED WITH OLIVIA.

PAUL FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 4 OCTOBER. THE WAVE CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 18 OCTOBER
AND MOVED INTO A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THE NEXT DAY. THIS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPED ON 20 OCTOBER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 21 OCTOBER ABOUT 230 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS PAUL MOVED WESTWARD...
EASTERLY SHEAR PREVENTED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PAUL REACHED THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON 22
OCTOBER...WHERE DECREASING SHEAR ALLOWED RAPID STRENGTHENING. PAUL
BECAME A HURRICANE ON 23 OCTOBER AND REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KT LATER THAT DAY. PAUL TURNED NORTHWARD LATE THAT
DAY DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH INDUCED
WEAKENING. PAUL ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ON 24 OCTOBER AS IT
WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER PASSED JUST SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 25
OCTOBER...THEN WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY. PAUL
TURNED NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHED
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THEN MOVED INLAND AND
DISSIPATED EARLY ON 26 OCTOBER ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHWEST OF CULIACAN. 
MEDIA ACCOUNTS INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FOUR DEATHS
IN MEXICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THAT FORMED ABOUT 135 N MI SOUTH OF MANZANILLO ON 26 OCTOBER. THE
DEPRESSION MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO AND ENCOUNTERED
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 28
OCTOBER ABOUT 210 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. THE
REMNANT LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR ABOUT A DAY UNTIL IT
DISSIPATED AROUND 0600 UTC 29 OCTOBER. 

ROSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN ON 3 NOVEMBER.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGAN TO INCREASE AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON 5 NOVEMBER.  THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED
DISORGANIZED THE NEXT DAY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER LATE ON 7 NOVEMBER...WHICH LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 0600 UTC 8 NOVEMBER WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 
385 N MI SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVED
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFETIME.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WAS SLOW DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
DESPITE THE SHEAR...CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER
EARLY ON 9 NOVEMBER WHICH ALLOWED THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY 0600 UTC WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 260 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.  THE SHEAR HALTED FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND ROSA REMAINED A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONLY 18
HOURS.  ROSA WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 0000 UTC 10
NOVEMBER AND THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH LATER THAT DAY WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 215 N MI SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO.

SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS SPAWNED BY A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT ENTERED THE PACIFIC ON 2 NOVEMBER.  THE ASSOCIATED
DISTURBED WEATHER WAS SLOW TO ORGANIZE...BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EVENTUALLY FORMED ON 11 NOVEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 565 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.  THE SYSTEM MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY.

SERGIO WAS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE FOR SO LATE
IN THE SEASON. IT DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CROSSED
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERED THE PACIFIC ON 7 NOVEMBER. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORMED ON 13 NOVEMBER ABOUT 415 N MI TO THE SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO. THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 14
NOVEMBER AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE ON 15 NOVEMBER. SERGIO
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT LATER THAT SAME DAY. THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT IT THEN TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGAN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SERGIO WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 17 NOVEMBER. THE CYCLONE TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...AND DISSIPATED LATE ON
20 NOVEMBER ABOUT 315 N MI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. THERE WAS NO
DIRECT OR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME             DATES         MAX WIND (KT)     DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------
TS ALETTA       27-30 MAY          40                0
TD TWO-E          3-5 JUN          30                0
H  BUD          11-16 JUL         110                0
H  CARLOTTA     12-16 JUL          75                0
H  DANIEL       17-26 JUL         130                0
TS EMILIA       21-28 JUL          55                0
TS FABIO     31 JUL-3 AUG          45                0
TS GILMA          1-3 AUG          35                0
H  HECTOR       15-23 AUG          95                0
H  ILEANA       21-27 AUG         105                0
H  JOHN      28 AUG-4 SEP         115                5
H  KRISTY    30 AUG-8 SEP          70                0
H  LANE         13-17 SEP         110                4
TS MIRIAM       16-18 SEP          40                0
TS NORMAN        9-15 OCT          45                0
TS OLIVIA        9-12 OCT          40                0
H  PAUL         21-26 OCT          90                4
TD EIGHTEEN-E   26-27 OCT          30                0
TS ROSA          8-10 NOV          35                0
TD TWENTY-E        11 NOV          30                0
H  SERGIO       13-20 NOV          95                0        
-------------------------------------------------------         

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE/AVILA/BEVEN/BROWN/FRANKLIN/KNABB/
           MAINELLI/RHOME/STEWART 




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