Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
100 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006

AFTER BEING VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER TODAY... 
THE DEPRESSION'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS FALLEN APART DURING THE DAY. 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOOTING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
A NARROW WINDOW OF 12 TO 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT
POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
STRENGTHENING DESPITE 30 KT OF FORECAST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE SUCH STRONG
SHEAR...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

AN EARLIER TRMM PASS HELPED TO FORM AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
335/6.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION... RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER THESE MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STAY A VERTICALLY-COHERENT
SYSTEM DESPITE STRONG SHEAR.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN DECOUPLING LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SHEAR...I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...GFS... AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 14.3N 104.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.1N 104.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.9N 105.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N 106.1W    30 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 106.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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