ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 202N 1117W 34 81 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 12 202N 1117W 50 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 12 202N 1117W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 218N 1106W 34 5 25(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 218N 1106W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 218N 1106W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 230N 1090W 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 36 230N 1090W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 230N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 240N 1070W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 48 240N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 240N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 35 30 25 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 14:40:04 UTC