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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X  10(10)  11(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   6( 6)  11(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 202N 1117W 34 81   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 202N 1117W 50 15   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 12 202N 1117W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 218N 1106W 34  5  25(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 218N 1106W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 218N 1106W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 230N 1090W 34  X   5( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 230N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 230N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 240N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 240N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 240N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     35      30      25       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 14:40:04 UTC