ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 35(46) 9(55) X(55) X(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 12(54) X(54) X(54) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 13(43) X(43) X(43) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 19(38) X(38) X(38) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 49(64) 10(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 26(27) 11(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 3 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 1113W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 170N 1113W 50 61 12(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 12 170N 1113W 64 19 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 24 185N 1116W 34 30 48(78) 8(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 24 185N 1116W 50 2 41(43) 9(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 24 185N 1116W 64 X 16(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 36 204N 1114W 34 3 24(27) 34(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 36 204N 1114W 50 X 3( 3) 23(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 36 204N 1114W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 48 230N 1100W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 35(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) 48 230N 1100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) 48 230N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 255N 1075W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) 72 255N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 255N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 70 65 60 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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