Tropical Storm PAUL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  35(46)   9(55)   X(55)   X(55)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  34(42)  12(54)   X(54)   X(54)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)  13(43)   X(43)   X(43)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  19(38)   X(38)   X(38)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 15  49(64)  10(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  26(27)  11(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  3   8(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N 1113W 34 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 170N 1113W 50 61  12(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 170N 1113W 64 19  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 24 185N 1116W 34 30  48(78)   8(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 24 185N 1116W 50  2  41(43)   9(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 185N 1116W 64  X  16(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 36 204N 1114W 34  3  24(27)  34(61)  10(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 36 204N 1114W 50  X   3( 3)  23(26)   8(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 36 204N 1114W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 230N 1100W 34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  35(46)   8(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 48 230N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 230N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 255N 1075W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 72 255N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 255N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     70      65      60      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN