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Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006

...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... 

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
...745 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...111.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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