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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
A RECENT AMSU PASS NEAR 1100 UTC INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS BECOME
DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SEPARATED FROM THE
DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...360/7...REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  SINCE
PAUL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT SHOULD BE STEERED
BY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS THROUGH 48 HOURS ESSENTIALLY TAKING
WHAT IS LEFT OF PAUL JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND TO THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
INDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
FORECAST.
 
ALL WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...SOME OF THE WATCHES
AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.9N 112.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 14:45:03 UTC