ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 TWO AMSU OVERPASSES...AN AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND A WINDSAT OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 6 HR INDICATE THAT PAUL IS LOSING ORGANIZATION... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR MAY BE OCCURRING BELOW THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CIRRUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PAUL SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HR DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE GFDL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL... NOW CALLS FOR PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING...WITH PAUL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALL OF WHICH SHOWING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF PAUL PARTING COMPANY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH COULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN THE UKMET...WHICH HAS THE 500 MB CENTER WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/6. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL PAUL HOLDS TOGETHER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PAUL WILL RETAIN SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AND THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35N. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IF PAUL SHEARS APART AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MEANDER OVER WATER AND NEVER MAKE LANDFALL. THE MOST EXTREME EXAMPLE OF THIS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THE UKMET...WHICH NEVER BRINGS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTH OF 20N. BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE... AND THUS INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.6N 111.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.7N 111.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.7N 109.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 02:45:03 UTC