Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
TWO AMSU OVERPASSES...AN AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND A WINDSAT OVERPASS
DURING THE PAST 6 HR INDICATE THAT PAUL IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR MAY BE OCCURRING BELOW THE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CIRRUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PAUL SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE
GFDL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...
NOW CALLS FOR PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A
TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING...WITH PAUL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALL OF WHICH SHOWING THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF PAUL PARTING COMPANY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH COULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN THE
UKMET...WHICH HAS THE 500 MB CENTER WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER
BY 12Z TUESDAY.  

THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/6.   THE
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL PAUL HOLDS
TOGETHER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PAUL
WILL RETAIN SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AND THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35N.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  IF PAUL
SHEARS APART AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MEANDER OVER
WATER AND NEVER MAKE LANDFALL.  THE MOST EXTREME EXAMPLE OF THIS IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THE UKMET...WHICH NEVER BRINGS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NORTH OF 20N.  
 
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...
AND THUS INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 17.6N 111.7W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.7N 111.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.7N 109.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 02:45:03 UTC