Hurricane PAUL

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
 
PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE.
 
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND
PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD
SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND
MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W    85 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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