Tropical Storm PAUL

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH
INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH
MAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS. 
 
PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7.  DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA.  THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX.  THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. 
THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN