ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OLIVIA... THOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT AT 30 KT. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS ADVECTED NEAR THE DEPRESSION. FURTHERMORE... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST... MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THUS A SPINDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW. OLIVIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED... AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 065/6. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES PART OF LARGE-SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE MORE TO THE EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO OLIVIA BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE LARGER REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SITUATION AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.0N 124.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 14:50:03 UTC