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Tropical Depression OLIVIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
800 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OLIVIA... THOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN
PARTIALLY EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT AT 30
KT.  THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS ADVECTED NEAR THE DEPRESSION. 
FURTHERMORE... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST... MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY.  THUS A
SPINDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION... AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.  

OLIVIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED... AND IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 065/6.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES PART OF
LARGE-SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.  THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS
REMNANTS WILL MOVE MORE TO THE EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO OLIVIA BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE
SOUTH AROUND THE LARGER REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SITUATION AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 17.0N 124.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 14:50:03 UTC