Tropical Storm OLIVIA

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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

OLIVIA'S DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN
AMORPHOUS BLOB.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER TODAY...AND THUS NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
WIND SPEED ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR...ABOUT 25 KT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OR MORE.  AS OLIVIA MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS OR FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...OLIVIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER
THAN INDICATED BY THIS FORECAST.

LATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NEAR 040/11.  FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OLIVIA IS LIKELY TO BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA
TO ITS NORTH.  THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT OLIVIA WILL INTERACT
WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMA...WHICH IS NOT FAR TO ITS
EAST.  SUCH AN INTERACTION COULD CAUSE A MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN
INDICATED BY THE LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS WELL
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT FAR FROM THE NCEP
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 16.5N 125.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.2N 124.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 122.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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