ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...SOME SLIGHT NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...I.E. AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE...DUE TO PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...350/3. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 13.3N 127.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Oct-2006 02:35:03 UTC