Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED
COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND
SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
PREDICTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND THE
SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...SOME SLIGHT NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...I.E. AN
ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME
AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE...DUE TO PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR...BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN
THE CENTER FIXES.  MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...350/3.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE FOR
ABOUT A DAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME STEERED BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER.  THIS FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 13.3N 127.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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