Tropical Depression NORMAN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 30
KT NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...WHICH HEDGES
CLOSELY TOWARD THE SHIPS...INDICATING FURTHER WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 3.
HOWEVER...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS A DRIFT EASTWARD...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH REFLECT A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 16.5N 117.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
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