Hurricane LANE

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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE
NEGATIVELY AFFECTED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF LANE.  SHORTWAVE
INFRARED AND EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
MOUNTAINS...SEPARATING FROM THE POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.  DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S
STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.  ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/7.  THE SURFACE CENTER
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BASICALLY PARALLELING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL RANGE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 25.0N 107.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 25.8N 107.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 26.7N 108.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 27.5N 108.7W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
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