ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 LANE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A LARGE OUTER BAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1226 UTC SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE PRESENT UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE LANE IS ALREADY A HURRICANE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO THE EAST AND WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN EARLIER. LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK... BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND. INDEED...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED. THE SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK. IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 19.7N 106.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W 85 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 15:00:03 UTC